Seasonal prediction of tornadoes

James B. Elsner

Concern over the impact of climate change on tornadoes has prompted an increase in research aimed at understanding and forecasting the links between tornadoes and climate. Given the current large gaps in understanding the climate of severe weather and in available forecasting techniques, basic and applied research is needed focusing on statistical modeling, improved diagnostic understanding, and methods to produce forecasts. Some recent studies hint at the potential for useful skill at predicting activity prior to the start of the season. We propose to geographically quantify the level of skill currently available for seasonal tornado forecasts. By doing so we will close the gap in understanding severe weather and climate and contribute to methods for forecasting.